---
title: The explanation of the Monty Hall problem that worked for me
description: >-
  Say you pick door 1.
  There is a ⅓ chance the car is behind door 1 and a ⅔ chance it is behind door 2 or 3.
  Say the host reveals the goat is behind door 2.
  There is still a ⅔ chance that the car is behind door 2 or 3, but you know it is not behind door 2.
  Therefore, there is a ⅔ chance that the car is behind door 3.
  So, switch.
tags: post,short
date: 2026-02-28 11:58:05 -5
---

<p>{props.description}</p>

## If you value the goat more than the car
Don’t switch.
However, even after taxes, you could sell the car to buy many goats.
Whatever floats your goat.