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montyhow: done

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mehbark 2026-03-17 23:07:03 -04:00
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---
title: The explanation of the Monty Hall problem that worked for me
description: >-
Say you pick door 1.
There is a ⅓ chance the car is behind door 1 and a ⅔ chance it is behind door 2 or 3.
Say the host reveals the goat is behind door 2.
There is still a ⅔ chance that the car is behind door 2 or 3, but you know it is not behind door 2.
Therefore, there is a ⅔ chance that the car is behind door 3.
So, switch.
tags: post,short
date: 2026-02-28 11:58:05 -5
---
<p>{props.description}</p>
## If you value the goat more than the car
Don’t switch.
However, even after taxes, you could sell the car to buy many goats.
Whatever floats your goat.