20 lines
671 B
Text
20 lines
671 B
Text
---
|
||
title: The explanation of the Monty Hall problem that worked for me
|
||
description: >-
|
||
Say you pick door 1.
|
||
There is a ⅓ chance the car is behind door 1 and a ⅔ chance it is behind door 2 or 3.
|
||
Say the host reveals the goat is behind door 2.
|
||
There is still a ⅔ chance that the car is behind door 2 or 3, but you know it is not behind door 2.
|
||
Therefore, there is a ⅔ chance that the car is behind door 3.
|
||
So, switch.
|
||
tags: post,short
|
||
date: 2026-02-28 11:58:05 -5
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
<p>{props.description}</p>
|
||
|
||
## If you value the goat more than the car
|
||
Don’t switch.
|
||
However, even after taxes, you could sell the car to buy many goats.
|
||
Whatever floats your goat.
|